ROME / RankWire.AI / – According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, global cereal production is expected to reach approximately 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026. This figure reflects a 2% decrease from the record harvest achieved in 2025. The latest forecast also indicates a shortfall of 3.4 million tonnes compared to previous estimates. Despite this annual decline, worldwide cereal output is projected to be the second highest on record, with a reduction of about 61.1 million tonnes from the previous year.
A significant factor behind the subdued global outlook is maize, with production estimated at 1.309 billion tonnes. The European Union experienced lower yield expectations due to hot and dry conditions, with France and Poland among the countries seeing the most notable downward revisions. India and Paraguay also reported smaller reductions, whereas increased yields in Argentina and Brazil partially offset the decline. Both South American producers continue to anticipate maize crops well above their recent averages.
The prospects for wheat have improved from earlier assessments, yet global production still remains below last year’s levels. The Food and Agriculture Organization now estimates production at 810.7 million tonnes, representing an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from prior forecasts. Enhanced yield expectations boosted the outlook for Canada and Morocco, while forecasts for Russia and Ukraine also rose. Conversely, dry conditions led to reduced estimates for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Overall, global wheat production is still 3.8% lower than in 2025.
Weakness in maize drags down global grain output
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is projected at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% decline from the revised record of the previous season. Improved yields in Myanmar and Sri Lanka contributed positively to the latest forecast, but these gains could not entirely offset weaker projections for China, the Philippines, and the United States. U.S. rice acreage has also fallen to levels not seen in decades, lowering the country’s expected contribution to the global supply.
Total global cereal consumption is forecasted at 2.965 billion tonnes for 2026/27, marking a 0.2% increase from the previous season. While coarse grain and rice use are expected to grow, wheat consumption is projected to decrease from last season’s high level. The forecast for rice utilization stands at 559 million tonnes, driven by rising food demand with population growth. Additionally, feed requirements, including barley in China and maize in the United States, continue to support coarse grain usage.
Stockpiles remain elevated despite a less optimistic outlook
At the conclusion of 2027, global cereal inventories are expected to total 947.2 million tonnes, a decrease of 10.7 million tonnes from the previous projection but still 1.8 million tonnes higher than initial opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is anticipated to reach 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% recorded in the prior season. Wheat reserves are expected to grow in Russia and Ukraine, whereas lower inventories of maize and barley contribute significantly to the overall reduction in stock estimates.
Trade in cereals globally for 2026/27 is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Despite this rise, trade volume remains below the record levels achieved in 2025/26. The increase is largely driven by higher maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship as much as 39 million tonnes. Meanwhile, international rice trade in 2026 is forecasted at 60.5 million tonnes, which is 1.9% below the record volume reached in 2025.