GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – World Trade Organization has adjusted its forecast for worldwide merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent, surpassing the earlier March projection of 1.9 percent by more than double. The upgrade is supported by robust trade figures in the first half, shifts in supply chains, and increased investment in artificial intelligence equipment. During the first six months of 2026, global merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent. The WTO also anticipates merchandise trade to grow by 4.1 percent in 2027.
A significant driver behind the improved trade outlook was the heightened demand for technology hardware. Goods related to artificial intelligence made up 47 percent of the global merchandise trade growth during the initial half of the year. These items include semiconductors, servers, and other equipment utilized in constructing computing infrastructure. Trade in AI-enabling products surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. Additionally, WTO estimates suggest global expenditure on AI infrastructure will increase by at least 30 percent in 2026.
During the same period, energy and shipping markets experienced notable disturbances. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined about 24 percent in the first half of 2026. Exports of liquefied natural gas from the region also dropped by 47 percent. The overall decline in crude oil was mitigated to approximately 6 percent due to increased shipments from other producing areas. Meanwhile, global LNG exports decreased roughly 1 percent. Through July, worldwide container throughput rose by 3.9 percent as trade shifted across alternative suppliers, ports, and transportation routes.
AI demand bolsters robust growth in merchandise trade
In contrast, the forecast for services was less optimistic than that for merchandise. The WTO lowered its 2026 projection for growth in commercial services trade from 4.8 percent to 3.3 percent. Transport and international travel experienced weaker performance due to disruptions in the Middle East. International tourist arrivals dipped by 0.8 percent in the second quarter, though for the first half, arrivals remained 0.4 percent higher than the same period in 2025. Growth in international travel expenditure also slowed during the second quarter.
Certain service sectors, however, continued to grow at a faster pace. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent year-on-year in the first quarter and are estimated to have risen by 12 percent in the second. Exports of financial services grew by 14 percent compared to a year earlier in the second quarter. The World Trade Organization predicts a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade for 2027. It also projects global GDP will expand by 2.6 percent in 2026 before increasing to 2.9 percent in the following year.
Asia expected to lead regional export growth in 2026
Regional export forecasts show significant variation across different areas. Asia is projected to see a 9.9 percent growth in exports for 2026. North America is expected to grow by 5.7 percent, while Africa’s exports are forecasted to increase by 5.6 percent. South America anticipates a 3.4 percent rise, whereas Europe faces a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East has the bleakest outlook, with merchandise exports predicted to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Imports also vary sharply across regions. Asia is expected to experience an import increase of 9.5 percent, with Africa following at 8.9 percent. North American imports are forecast to grow by 1.4 percent, compared to Europe’s modest 0.5 percent rise. Conversely, merchandise imports in the Middle East are projected to decline by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that recent trade data demonstrated resilience, while also highlighting the uneven effects stemming from economic and geopolitical disruptions.